What the numbers tell us
Some governments are known to plan the introduction of systems for the issue of vaccination passports, which certify that holders are vaccinated against the Covid-19 virus. It is expected that governments and private organizations will use these passports to operate more safely and efficiently.
For example, it was reported that “On May 18, the Oregon Health Authority announced that “businesses, employers, and faith institutions” could admit fully vaccinated, unmasked persons – but only if they first asked for and inspected “each individual’s proof of vaccination prior to entry or admission.”
A recent Leger poll of 1,529 Canadians found that 61 per cent wanted the government to create such a system even as it is strongly opposed by many who do not fully understand its true nature and economic benefits.
No detailed descriptions are available of how a passport system will work. However, the basic features of such a system are obvious and underlie the following account. Such a system would work like the loyalty programs used by supermarkets and other retailers. Membership in the loyalty programs is voluntary and free. It entitles holders to receive a discount on their purchases at the cash register.
In the same way, vaccination passports, which might be called Immune Certificate Cards (ICC) are obtained voluntarily, free of charge and entitle bearers to certain benefits. For example, when buying tickets for a hockey game or concert, ICC holders receive a discount on the posted price by swiping their card and entering a security code on one of the widely used electronic card readers.
Cash discounts are most conveniently applied by businesses such as restaurants, theatres, and sports arenas and places of worship that can reserve different sections for customers with and without ICCs. Businesses like retail stores, banks, government agencies and medical service providers can provide benefits to ICC holders by allowing them to line up and be given service without meeting government required conditions such as wearing masks and keeping distances.
Such discounts are available already to international travelers landing in a growing number of countries. Ownership of ICC is required to board cruise ships.
Businesses do not have to offer discounts to ICC holders, but it makes eminent economic sense to do so. After all, it costs less to seat immune customers at the traditional rather than the government required density. Economic considerations and competition will determine the number of seats sold to the ICC holders and others, and the level of discounts.
Some Canadians will not obtain ICCs for religious or ideological reasons, or because they fear possible adverse health effects. Others cannot get vaccinated because of existing health conditions or disabilities. The proposed system does not discriminate against either group. Members of the former group make the deliberate choice to forgo the benefits. Members of the latter group of unfortunate individuals will have to join the ranks of people who are served by Canada’s social service providers.
The design and operation of the proposed ICC system will be technically challenging, costly, and time consuming. However, Canada’s credit card companies should be able to deal readily with these issues. Their business uses skilled technicians operating a system which could easily be expanded to include the issuance of ICC if the federal government pays for the cost.
The companies operating such a system need access to information on the vaccination status of Canadians, which exists in provincial government databases. This information should be made available to the issuers of ICC, which are equipped to protect the confidentiality of this information much as they do with the credit rating of their customers.
The decision to create and operate an ICC system should be determined by its benefits and costs. The benefits arise mainly through the acceleration of the return to normal economic activities: sales by restaurants, theatres, sports arenas, airlines, cruise ships and other businesses that increase profits, employment, and tax payments. Many Canadians will receive psychological benefits from unrestricted attendance of educational institutions, recreational facilities, and traditional places of work, as well as the absence of restrictions on travel and visits to health and personal care providers.
It is difficult to make exact estimates of these benefits and costs. However, the problems facing Canadians are so serious and costly that even rough estimates are worth the effort. A first step might be to consult with credit card companies to determine the feasibility and likely cost of an ICC system. Let us get going.
Herbert Grubel, Emeritus Professor of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
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