By Romel Dhalla
The renewed push toward a Canada–India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) may prove to be one of the most important economic opportunities Canada has seen in decades. At a time when Canada is actively seeking to diversify trade relationships beyond the United States and build stronger ties with the world’s fastest-growing major economy, the recent momentum between Ottawa and New Delhi offers reason for optimism. The challenge now is ensuring that momentum becomes a finalized agreement in 2026.
The relationship has already begun moving in the right direction. Following a diplomatic reset between the two countries, Canada and India formally relaunched CEPA negotiations in early 2026, signing Terms of Reference and establishing a roadmap aimed at concluding negotiations by the end of the year. Multiple rounds of negotiations have already taken place, and officials on both sides have emphasized a more pragmatic approach focused on areas of mutual benefit rather than allowing difficult issues to stall progress. That practical approach is exactly what both countries need.
India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next several years. Its population exceeds 1.4 billion people, its middle class continues to expand rapidly, and its demand for food, energy, critical minerals, infrastructure, education, and advanced technologies is growing at a historic pace. Canada possesses many of the resources and capabilities India requires. India, meanwhile, offers Canada access to one of the largest and fastest-growing consumer and industrial markets in the world.
Few provinces understand this reality better than Saskatchewan. At the recent Western Leaders Summit hosted by the Canada-India Business Council, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe highlighted the province’s growing economic relationship with India. The numbers speak for themselves.
Saskatchewan currently supplies approximately half of India’s pulse imports, making it an essential contributor to Indian food security. The province is also home to roughly 35 percent of global potash production, a critical ingredient in fertilizer that helps support agricultural productivity not only in India but around the world. As India continues to modernize its agricultural sector and feed a growing population, Saskatchewan’s importance as a reliable supplier will only increase.
Perhaps the most significant recent development is the landmark $3 billion, 10-year uranium supply agreement between Cameco Corporation and India. The agreement demonstrates the scale of opportunity that exists when both countries focus on long-term strategic cooperation. It also reflects India’s growing commitment to expanding nuclear energy generation as it seeks to meet rising electricity demand while reducing emissions. Canada’s world-leading expertise in uranium production and nuclear technology positions the country as a natural partner in that effort.
The Saskatchewan example should serve as a model for the rest of Canada. While Saskatchewan’s advantages are clear in agriculture, fertilizer production, and uranium, every province has sectors that could benefit from deeper engagement with India.
British Columbia possesses enormous potential in liquefied natural gas exports, critical minerals, forestry products, and technology. Alberta’s energy sector could play a significant role in meeting India’s growing energy needs.
Ontario and Quebec remain leaders in advanced manufacturing, aerospace, artificial intelligence, financial services, and education. Atlantic Canada offers opportunities in seafood exports and energy development.
Manitoba may be particularly well positioned to benefit from a stronger bilateral relationship. Historically, Manitoba has often found itself overlooked in discussions about international trade. Yet the province possesses unique strategic advantages that could become increasingly valuable as Canada seeks to expand commercial ties with India.
Agriculture remains the most obvious opportunity. Manitoba’s producers already export significant volumes of grains, pulses, oilseeds, and food products to international markets. A successful CEPA could reduce barriers, improve market access, and create new opportunities for Manitoba farmers and processors.
However, Manitoba’s greatest long-term opportunity may lie much farther north. The Port of Churchill represents one of Canada’s most underappreciated strategic assets. As North America’s only deep-water Arctic port connected directly to the continental rail network, Churchill offers unique access to international shipping routes through Hudson Bay. The port and the Hudson Bay Railway are currently undergoing modernization efforts, while governments and industry groups continue exploring ways to expand capacity and extend shipping seasons.
Recent federal studies and infrastructure initiatives have focused on unlocking the port’s long-term growth potential. New partnerships involving the Port of Churchill, CentrePort Canada, and the Winnipeg Airports Authority are also attempting to create integrated trade corridors linking inland, air, and Arctic transportation networks.
While India-bound cargo would still need to transit through Atlantic shipping routes, Churchill’s potential lies in providing an additional export gateway for Canadian commodities, critical minerals, fertilizer, agricultural products, and potentially energy-related exports. As geopolitical uncertainty continues to affect traditional trade routes and supply chains, Canada benefits from having multiple export corridors available to global markets.
Churchill also aligns with a broader national objective that is becoming increasingly important: Arctic development and sovereignty. Investments in northern infrastructure strengthen Canada’s economic resilience while creating opportunities for Indigenous communities, resource producers, and exporters across the Prairies.
Encouragingly, many of the individuals leading Canada–India relations today appear committed to advancing exactly this type of long-term thinking. His Excellency Dinesh Patnaik and His Excellency Christopher Cooter have emerged as important voices advocating for deeper engagement between the two countries.
At the Western Leaders Summit, recently held in Regina, both diplomats emphasized the enormous opportunities that remain available despite recent challenges. Among the sectors identified as highest priorities for bilateral cooperation were agriculture, energy, and education. These are areas where both countries possess clear complementary strengths and where tangible progress can be achieved relatively quickly.
Education also deserves particular attention. International students have long served as one of the strongest bridges between Canada and India. Beyond the economic benefits they generate, students create long-lasting personal, professional, and cultural connections that strengthen relationships between countries for generations. Improving visa processing, reducing uncertainty, and restoring confidence in immigration systems were identified as important priorities during discussions at the summit.
Recent efforts to improve visa processing timelines and establish more reliable long-term approvals could help rebuild confidence while ensuring legitimate students, workers, and business travelers can continue contributing to both economies.
There are, of course, challenges that remain. Political tensions over recent years created uncertainty and interrupted trade negotiations. Media narratives have often focused on areas of disagreement rather than cooperation. Certain diaspora-related disputes continue to influence political discussions. Competition for talent is also intensifying, with countries such as Germany increasingly attracting highly skilled Indian students and professionals. These realities cannot simply be ignored.
Yet successful trade relationships are rarely built because two countries agree on everything. They succeed because both sides recognize that cooperation creates mutual benefits greater than the costs of disagreement.
That is why the current focus on practical outcomes is so important. Rather than attempting to solve every difficult issue simultaneously, negotiators are increasingly concentrating on achievable objectives, commercial opportunities, and areas of shared interest. This approach offers the best path toward a successful agreement and mirrors the strategy that many other countries have used when negotiating major trade deals.
The potential rewards are substantial. Canada and India have already expressed ambitions of significantly expanding bilateral trade over the coming decade, with discussions frequently referencing a goal of reaching approximately $50 billion in trade by 2030. Key growth sectors include energy, critical minerals, uranium, agriculture, aerospace, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, education, and infrastructure development.
Canada currently exports products such as pulses, mineral fuels, fertilizer inputs, wood pulp, uranium, and other resource-based commodities to India, while importing pharmaceuticals, machinery, precious stones, textiles, electronics, and manufactured goods. The two economies are not competitors in most sectors. They are complementary.
Saskatchewan has already demonstrated what is possible when Canada embraces that reality. The province has built meaningful, strategic trade relationships that support jobs, investment, and economic growth on both sides of the world. The rest of Canada should take notice.
A completed Canada–India CEPA in 2026 would would represent a long-term strategic partnership between two democracies with enormous economic potential. It would provide new opportunities for Canadian exporters, investors, students, innovators, and workers. It would strengthen supply chains, diversify markets, and reduce dependence on a single trading partner. Most importantly, it would position Canada to participate more fully in the economic story that will define much of the twenty-first century: the rise of India.
The groundwork is finally being laid. The negotiations are moving. The diplomats are engaged. The opportunities are clear. Now both governments must finish the job. A Canada–India CEPA should be signed in 2026.
Romel Dhalla, is President of Dhalla Advisory Corp., provides strategic corporate finance advice to companies and high net worth individuals. He was a portfolio manager and investment advisor with two major Canadian banks for 17 years. Contact him at romel@dacorp.ca. Any views or opinions represented in this article are personal and belong solely to the author and do not represent those of people, institutions or organizations that the author may or may not be associated with in professional or personal capacity, unless explicitly stated. Any views or opinions are not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, or individual.
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